Scientists monitoring the tropical Pacific Ocean are now projecting that the developing Super El Niño could become the most intense event since at least 1950, with potentially severe consequences for global weather patterns.
According to the latest computer model projections, this El Niño is expected to rapidly strengthen over the next few months and reach peak intensity in late fall to early winter. Some models indicate it could surpass the 2015-2016 event, which was already among the strongest on record.
“I think it’s fair to say that, depending on the model, the forecasts are close to unprecedented,” said Michael Tippett, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University.
El Niño is a periodic climate cycle characterized by warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific. These temperature shifts trigger cascading effects on weather patterns worldwide, transferring massive amounts of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere and raising global average temperatures.
Recent model runs show a clear trend toward greater intensity. “The consensus is definitely shifting towards an even stronger event,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist tracking El Niño projections. “Currently, the odds of seeing a record-strong El Niño event this year are quite large.”
Ocean temperatures in the key monitoring region are already running record warm for this time of year, as hot water moves from the western Pacific to the east, reinforcing the El Niño’s strength.
A major wild card is the backdrop of human-caused climate change. This would be the first time such an intense El Niño has occurred while global sea surface temperatures are already at record highs and worldwide air temperatures are tracking toward another top five warmest year. Scientists are unsure how the planet’s warm background conditions might modify typical El Niño impacts.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning urging officials worldwide to prepare for El Niño-related impacts. “El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “This will intensify the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.”
Potential impacts include flooding in some regions, drought in others, heat waves, and disruptions to agriculture. For example, El Niño has historically depressed rice yields in India and parts of Asia, which can lead to food price inflation.
The WMO is also mobilizing UN agencies to anticipate extreme events that may require humanitarian response. While the strongest effects typically occur during the Northern Hemisphere winter, above-average temperatures are expected globally during the July through September period.
